The “gambler’s fallacy,” and the “Monte Carlo fallacy,” and even “the fallacy of the maturity of chances.” It all boils down to one basic, misguided belief: In games of chance, like roulette or craps, if a certain outcome hasn’t happened in awhile, it’s more likely to occur in the future. The Gambler's Fallacy The Gambler's Fallacy is the idea that past behavior influences future behavior. In everyday life, it's a good strategy — there are all kinds of ways that events in the past.

Roulette is one of the most popular casino games because it offers such a low house edge, and is a favorite casino game among many poker players. It allows for advanced strategy play, that, much like poker, takes a keen mind and the guts to make big moves. It’s also a great game to explain The Gambler’s Fallacy. Like any gambling strategy, there are some disadvantages to the Martingale. Watch out for that gambler’s fallacy – just because one color has won 100 times in a row doesn’t mean that the other color is more likely to appear on the next spin. Roulette spins have a chance of a little less than 50/50 because of the 0 and 00. The Gambler’s Fallacy and Roulette Also, it’s important to understand how the gambler’s fallacy fits into this discussion. This is a common math mistake where someone thinks that something that’s happened repeatedly on previous bets changes the probability on the next bet.

Roulette is one of the oldest casino games. You can make a great profit with it without a strategy. The only thing you need to do is place a bet on a certain number or color. However, it’s also possible to make a more careful choice by using a strategy for Roulette. For many players who love this game, a strategy is recommended. Some gamblers have misconceptions about Roulette though, and this leads to mistakes. How can you prevent this?

What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?

Many Roulette players make a mistake that is known as the ‘Gambler’s Fallacy’. Perhaps you’ve heard about it before. It’s important to be aware of this mistake, so that you will not become another victim. The idea behind the Gambler’s Fallacy is simple. Players think that if something during the game has happened recently, the chance that it will happen again decreases. Imagine that in the past rounds the color red fell several times. You might think that this increases the chance that black will fall. However, this is a big misconception. The chance that black or red will fall is exactly the same as the previous turn. You simply cannot use probability calculation like you’ve learned at high school.

You cannot influence the outcome
The human brain often thinks that it can influence the outcome of a game by using calculations. In reality, this is not true, especially when it comes to Roulette. Interestingly enough, casinos seem to reply to the Gambler’s Fallacy. If you pay attention, you will see that a casino always put the numbers and colors that have fallen on the results board. If a player sees what has happened, he or she might react to it with a certain bet. Try to avoid this by seeing each turn as a separate thing.

How do casinos react?

There are more reasons why casinos put the fallen numbers and colors on a screen. It also shows when something is wrong with the wheel. Players notice an anomaly and the game has to be reset. A broken wheel can influence the game in a negative way. The theory is that it increases the chance that the Roulette ball will end up at a certain number or at one side of the wheel for several rounds. This can affect the house edge, which is something the casinos like to avoid.

How to avoid this common mistake
Use your mind and do not make the most common mistake during Roulette: the Gambler’s Fallacy. This is also the case with doing ‘the exact opposite’. You make the same mistake, because it’s simply not possible to influence the game. Use a proven Roulette strategy instead, if you like to win more often. Good luck!

Years ago some friends of mine where having a discussion about Las Vegas in which I learned that each of these individuals, who I would consider generally above the grain in terms of intelligence, had fallen for the gambler’s fallacy.

In a nutshell, the gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future. For example, it would be the belief that if Black has come up 5 times in a row during a game of roulette, then betting Red on the next spin would increase your odds of winning because Red is “due” for a hit.

Roulette Strategy Gambler's Fallacy Argument

If this is the basis for your betting strategy, stop now!

A brief description of bets and probability:

A bet is a wager that one or more events will occur given the possibility of varying outcomes. The probability of the wager is based on the number of winning outcomes divided by the number of possible outcomes.

Every wager in a pure bet takes place in a closed universe where there are a finite number of winning results and a finite number of total possible results.

Let’s take a wager that you will flip a coin and get heads three times in a row. There is one possible winning outcome: HHH. There are eight possible outcomes: HHH, THH, THT, TTH, HTH, HTT, HHT, and TTT. Therefore, the probability of winning is 1/8. In other words, there is 1 possible winning outcome out of 8 possible outcomes. If the bet was that you will get all heads OR all tails, then the probability changes to 2/8, or 1/4.

Roulette Strategy Gambler's Fallacy Examples

The bet takes place in a closed universe where the outcomes are limited by what reality dictates and the winning outcomes are dependent on whatever the gamblers choose in advance.

When the bet is that you will flip a heads in a single coin flip, a new universe is created to satisfy the conditions of that individual bet. You are no longer including the results of the previous flips or future flips, because what happened previously is not at play with the new conditions that are being set forth with the new bet…nor are the results of future flips important as to whether you win or not. If you get your heads, the wager taker is not going to come back and say, “OK, now let’s flip again to see if you win”. The wager didn’t include future events, nor does it include past events.

In this case, there is one possible winning outcome: H. There are two possible outcomes: H and T. The probability of victory is 1/2, one out of two.

This doesn’t change based on what previous results were because the previous results are not part of the bet. They are irrelevant.

If you were betting in the 3 heads universe, there are more outcomes and therefore more opportunities for loss. In the one head universe, there are only two outcomes that are physically possible and that is what you are betting on, nothing less, nothing more.

Indeed, if the previous results were 10 heads in a row, that is amazing! The probability of that is very highly against. However, in the one heads bet, the total number of possibilities that made the 10 heads in a row such a feat are not in play for you. You weren’t betting the last 10 flips would be heads. Your universe is smaller. Your bet is limited to the outcome of one flip, not the combined possible outcomes of a larger universe you aren’t participating in.

One doesn’t affect the other. That’s the important part. For the person who started at the beginning trying to flip 10 in a row, the probability is against him because the possible outcomes are enormous. The one coin flipper has a smaller universe because they didn’t start when the 10 flipper did. What happened previously isn’t relevant to them.

Now, substitute a coin flip for the 38 possible results in a roulette spin (American) and the same holds true. The probability of the next spin being black is 18/38. (47.36%) There are 38 possible outcomes, 18 of which are black. This is true for each and every spin. The results of previous spins don’t matter. You aren’t betting on the past results! If we could place wagers on previous outcomes, we’d all be rich! LOL!

Roulette Strategy Gambler's Fallacy Hasty

Find a betting combination that maximizes your potential profit and stick with it. Placing a larger bet because you think the next outcome can be predicted will make the casino love you!